Fallin, Edmondson leading governor candidates

Democrat Drew Edmondson and Republican Mary Fallin lead the possible primary elections for governor next year, a new survey shows.

The SoonerPoll, conducted by Keith Gaddie and Bill Shapard, shows Edmondson leading Lt. Governor Jari Askins 41.9-28.7 percent, and Fallin leading Congressman Tom Cole 53 to 31.1 percent; Senator Randy Brogdon drew 1.3 percent.

Said Gaddie: "We direct your attention to several interesting elements of the survey, including the strong name familiarity and positives of Rep. Fallin, her strength in the trial heat across geography and especially among core conservatives and high-propensity voters, and her strong support across men, women, married and single voters.

"In the Democratic primary, note the strength of AG Edmondson but also the notable degree to which many high-propensity voters are not familiar with any of the aspirants. My initial reaction is that Randy Brogdon (R- Dist 34, Owasso) is definitely smoking something if he thinks he has any shot at all to become governor.
"Second, it is evident that Cole’s ID is weak even among Republicans, and his favorables (36.3 to 12.7 unfavorable) are weaker among those core GOP voters who are the most likely to vote. If you run this primary, Cole has to pull down Mary’s favorables (never been done before) (56.7 to 18.9 percent unfavorable) and also pump up his ID and his own favorables outside the district. "Askins can overhaul Edmondson, but its the same kind of problem — displace the longest-serving DEM who has strong favorables in the party (44.6-20.6 versus 32.3-20.7 for Askins).

"The biggest shock for Sen. Brogdon will be that NO ONE KNOWS OF HIM (3.8 percent favorable, 3.6 percent unfavorable).

"The biggest shock for Cole, even with his polling experience, will be his lack of name ID. These numbers are not as good as Istook’s in 2005. Fallin– strong with core conservatives. Can run hard against Cole on his get-along approach, failure in 2008 US House races, ouster as RNCC chair," Gaddie concluded.