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Social Science helped push Obama’s re-election

Analysis:  One persistently interesting story that has emerged since the wrap-up of this fall’s campaign by President Barack Obama is the story of how the Obama campaign’s operations were dictated not by liberal ideology but by a process consumed with data and an attempt to scientifically boost turnout.

Conservatives sneered at this approach prior to the election for its attempt to obviate human free will as a factor. Now that it has worked, Republican consultants are probably combing through the strategy to see how to replicate it on their side. And one particularly interesting area where this data-driven approach appears to have been not only used, but pushed further than anyone had before, can be seen in an article by the New York Times explaining the campaign’s consultation with scientists studying behavioral economics.

Behavioral economics is a relatively new field of economic analysis that blends insights from psychology and neuroscience with econometric equations to model how human beings make their decisions. It has gained special currency on the Left because many liberals see its conclusions as contradicting the presumption by classical economists that every decision is “rational.” That this is a straw man of the economic definition of “rationality” does not appear to phase these would-be critics.

However, despite its currency on the Left, behavioral economics leans neither direction (though many authors, such as Cass Sunstein, have sought to apply its insights to government), as it is focused exclusively on understanding human decision-making processes, and what stimuli are most likely to make people choose particular options. That is where the Obama campaign decided to use it – specifically, to figure out what would motivate people to vote.

From the New York Times article:

In a now classic experiment, a pair of Stanford
psychologists asked people if they would display in a home window a
small card proclaiming the importance of safe driving. Those who agreed
to this small favor were later much more likely to agree to a much
larger favor, to post a large “Drive Carefully” sign on their lawn —
“something no one would agree to do otherwise,” Dr. Cialdini said.

Obama volunteers also asked people if they had a plan to vote and if
not, to make one, specifying a time, according to Stephen Shaw, a
retired cancer researcher who knocked on doors in Nevada and Virginia in
the days before the election. “One thing we’d say is that we know that
when people have a plan, voting goes more smoothly,” he said.[…]

Another technique some volunteers said they used was to inform
supporters that others in their neighborhood were planning to vote.
Again, recent research shows that this kind of message is much more
likely to prompt people to vote than traditional campaign literature
that emphasizes the negative — that many neighbors did not vote and thus
lost an opportunity to make a difference.

Click here for more from The Blaze.

White House ‘secede’ petitions reach 50-state participation

Less than a week after a suburbanite petitioned the White House to allow Louisiana to secede from the U.S., petitions from seven states have collected enough signatures to trigger a promised review.

By 6:00 a.m. EST Wednesday, more than 675,000 digital signatures appeared on 69 separate secession petitions covering all 50 states, according to a Daily Caller analysis of requests lodged with the White House’s “We the People” online petition system.

A petition from Vermont, where talk of secession is a regular feature of political life, was the final entry.

Petitions from Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina, Tennessee and Texas residents have accrued at least 25,000 signatures, the number the Obama administration says it will reward with a staff review of online proposals. (RELATED: Will Texas secede? Petition triggers White House review)

The Texas petition leads all others by a wide margin. Shortly before 9:00 a.m. EST Wednesday, it had attracted 94,700 signatures. But a spokesperson for Gov. Rick Perry said Tuesday afternoon that he does not support the idea of his state striking out on its own.

“Gov. Perry believes in the greatness of our Union and nothing should be done to change it. But he also shares the frustrations many Americans have with our federal government,” according to a statement from the governor’s office.

A backlash Monday night saw requests filed with the White House to strip citizenship rights from Americans who signed petitions to help states secede.

Click here for more from The Daily Caller.

 

Farm Bureau seeks ‘Right to farm’ Amendment

An Oklahoma farm leader would like the Legislature to consider a constitutional protection amendment for farmers, following what voters in North Dakota did in this month’s elections when they approved a right to farm amendment in their state constitution.

Oklahoma Farm Bureau President Mike Spradling likes the idea.

“I’m really interested in doing that,” he said when asked by The McCarville Report about the North Dakota constitutional amendment that guarantees the right of farmers to take part in modern agriculture. 

The measure arose from attacks by animal rights activists and those fighting modern applications of technology and chemicals in growing crops. The amendment also bars any law that would limit their right to use agricultural technology, modern livestock production and ranching practices.  “We have a tremendous concern in the state for the protection of our producers,”added Spradling.

Oklahoma already has a livestock preemption law that was signed by Governor Brad Henry in 2009. Under the law, the State Agriculture Department is responsible for enforcing a uniform standard for the care and handling of livestock. But the three-year old Oklahoma law does not apply to any modern application to crops. In other words, the law protects North Dakota farmers from social movements that are fighting genetically modified crops or food ingredients.

Spradling, who wants to meet with other statewide farm leaders such as those representing the Farmers Union and the American Farmers and Ranchers, thinks it’s a case of rural versus urban.

“We have to educate people about the practices we employ,” he explained. “We’re being told that by 2050, we’ll see a 34 percent increase in the world’s population and there’ll be a worldwide demand for twice as much agricultural production.”

The rancher from Sand Springs believes the use of technology will have to be used to achieve the goal….technology that will develop plants that will use less water. “American farmers will be asked to do more as the population increases.”

Spradling thinks the prospect of introducing a measure in the legislature won’t be difficult. “I don’t think we’ll have a bit of a problem getting a friendly legislator.”

OK: Republicans delivered the ‘coup de grace’ – and voters were in a “YES” mood

OKLAHOMA CITY — Republicans gained four Senate seats in Tuesday’s election. In the Oklahoma State Senate, that is, where Republicans now have a 36-12 advantage. And, for the cycle, the Grand Old Party gained two seats in the state House, reaching an unprecedented 72-29 edge.

Wait, that’s not all: In the Second Congressional District, Republican businessman Markwayne Mullin prevailed handily over a credible Democratic nominee, former prosecutor Rob Wallace. The resignation of popular incumbent Democrat Dan Boren created the open seat in the sprawling district stretching across 22 counties in eastern Oklahoma. National Democratic Party leaders never delivered on promises they would fight to keep the district on their side of the aisle.  

In Tulsa, Jim Bridenstine held the First Congressional District for Republicans, while incumbents James Lankford, Tom Cole and Frank Lucas won comfortably. Now, all five U.S. representatives, both U.S. Senators, both Houses of the Legislature and every statewide elected official is a registered Republican for the first time in Oklahoma history.

The party easily gained two state Senate seats held until this year by Democrats – snagging them when only members of the GOP filed in districts reconfigured during reapportionment in 2011. In other contests, Republicans prevailed in the general election, yielding the net gain of four.

In the House, Republicans gained two seats over the election cycle. After hitting 70 in 2010, Republicans lost incumbents to death or retirement during the last two years, but regained ground with to rebuild to 72, overall.

The Republican House caucus met Thursday (November 8) to affirm as Speaker-elect state Rep. T.W. Shannon of Lawton, a legislator of black and American Indian descent.

The state Democratic Party, dominant political force for the first century in Oklahoma history, has never been weaker. Party faithful took comfort in scattered good news, largely incumbents who weathered general election challenges, including some at the county level.

While Democrats still hold a plurality advantage in registration, Mitt Romney’s strong victory in the presidential race was ratification of the slow motion collapse of the party of Jefferson that began in the state during the 1960s and accelerated in the Reagan years. In final but unofficial returns, Romney had 889,710 votes (66.8 percent) to President Barack Obama’s 442,787 (33.2 percent).

In other news from Tuesday’s election, despite a clear and consistent conservative pattern in the results on political races, Oklahoma voters were “conservative” in another sense of the word, refusing to toss out four State Supreme Court justices who had been subjected to unprecedented critical attention.

The justices – Yvonne Kauger, Doug Combs, James Edmondson and Noma Gurich – gained comfortable “YES” margins in the retention votes. Ranging from a low of 65.6  percent (Kauger) to a high of 66.9 percent (Edmondson).

The state Chamber of Commerce — which sponsored an analysis that listed each of the jurists as voting to limit the growth of tort liability less than one-third of the time – never explicitly asked for “NO” votes. However, the group engaged in a first-ever educational campaign pointing to the critical analysis.

Trial lawyers organized to support “YES” votes for the justices, purchasing some newspaper advertisements beginning last month. Then, as election day neared, retired University of Oklahoma Coach Barry Switzer, former Democratic Governor Brad Henry and conservative attorney James Dunn (the Republican nominee for attorney general in 2006) all appeared in television advertisements supporting the justices.

In the end, voters backed all the High Court members, despite controversy that arose after John Miley, an attorney working in state government, circulated through his state email system a missive calling on fellow attorneys to support all the justices.That included his wife, Justice Gurich.

Also retained in office were five judges on the court of criminal appeals, and three members of the court of civil appeals. The State Chamber ignored the criminal court judges, but had taken a critical look at two of the three civil judges, in a study similar to the one focused on the High Court.

The six state questions on Tuesday’s ballot were all constitutional amendments.

State Question 758 limits the annual increase in property taxes to a maximum of 3 percent, rather than the 5 percent annual increase cap now in place. The proposal crafted by state Rep. David Dank, a conservative Republican from Oklahoma City, was the most popular ballot proposition of the year, getting 856,711 votes (67.7 percent).

S.Q. 759 bans affirmative action in government employment, education and contracting with limited exceptions. It gained 744,554 yes votes (59.2 percent).

S.Q. 762 removes the governor from the parole process for nonviolent offenders, leaving that function to the pardon and parole board. Despite late opposition, the measure was boosted through a range of late advertising, and gained 743,965 yes votes (59.2 percent).

S.Q. 764 was the least popular of the statewide measures, but still gathered in a comfortable 56.7 percent in support, with 705,036 votes. As a result, the Oklahoma Water Resources Bard will be able to issue water infrastructure bonds, and maintain a limited reserve fund.

S.Q. 765 abolished the constitutional requirement for a commission to govern the Oklahoma Department of Human Services. Leadership for the agency will, in the future, be gubernatorial nominees. 750,558 voted yes, 59.9 percent of the total.

The proposition with the most notoriety this year as S.Q. 766, which puts in place a strict ban on taxation of “intangible” property. The three-year drive for the change in the constitution came after a 2009 state Supreme Court decision took a limited view of existing strictures against levies on intangible property. That case drew a distinction between locally assessed and “centrally-assessed” property, with the latter consisting of some of the Sooner State’s most important businesses.

The State Chamber organized a drive to make explicit the ban on intangible taxation. While opposition to the amendment emerged, the Chamber dominated the airwaves and also placed a large number of newspaper advertisements touting the proposal. 824,742 voters (65 percent) backed the proposition, while 444,637 (35 percent) were opposed.


Contact the author: Patrick B. McGuigan at Patrick@capitolbeatok.com and follow on Twitter: @capitolbeatok.

Blue Bell introduces Gingerbread House Ice Cream

A new Holiday treat is described as a creamy cinnamon ice cream with flavorful gingerbread pieces, festive red and green sprinkles and miniature marshmallows surrounded by vanilla icing.

“Building a gingerbread house and placing it as a holiday centerpiece is a yearly activity for many,” said Carl Breed, Blue Bell director of marketing. “And our ice cream has become a traditional dessert served in the homes of Blue Bell Ice Cream fans. That’s why Gingerbread House Ice Cream is a perfect addition to this line. The flavor is festive and definitely the best tasting gingerbread house I’ve ever eaten.”

Alongside Gingerbread House, this year Blue Bell is offering these Holiday Favorites; Christmas Cookies Ice Cream, Peppermint Ice Cream and Spiced Pumpkin Pecan Ice Cream.

Christmas Cookies, a combination of your favorite holiday cookies – chocolate chip, snickerdoodle and sugar – in a tasty sugar cookie ice cream with red candy cane-shaped sprinkles and a green icing swirl throughout, was re-released earlier this year for a special in July promotion due to its overwhelming popularity last year.

Spiced Pumpkin Pecan is a delightful spiced pumpkin ice cream combined with tasty sugar-coated pecans and a rich cinnamon-honey-praline sauce. This flavor made its debut in 2010.

Peppermint, a long-time favorite ice cream flavor during the holiday season, is a cool, refreshing peppermint ice cream sprinkled with peppermint candy pieces.

“We tried something new last year when we introduced our Holiday Favorites line of ice cream,” Breed added. “Traditionally, less ice cream is sold during the winter months, but our Holiday Favorites were an instant hit.”

Look for Gingerbread House Ice Cream along with the three returning Holiday Favorites neatly packaged in a half gallon container, each adorned with a red ribbon and bow, in your grocer’s freezer section in October. Blue Bell Holiday Favorites are only available for a limited time.